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The War
11 November, 2022

Is Poland threatened by the war?

Commentary on the conversation between Zychowicz and Bartosiak.
Category: Poland
Added: 08 May, 2023, 17:54

 

 

 

4/27/2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FkQn63EdwM0&t=390s
Czy Polsce grozi wojna?
This conversation we discuss here took place two months ago. Poland is not at war as yet but voices which pull the country into the war are increasing. The ideas presented below are the development of the previous discussion with Arestovich and Bartosiak posted in January.

At 4:27 minute Zychowicz asks the question: Could Russia win that war?

It depends what does it mean to win and for whom, Bartosiak counters. He claims this war is not about the issue between neighbors, it is the result of structural adjustment, Russia wants new balance of power in Europe and to reach it is the win for Russia.

Bartosiak is in error asserting this war is not the war between neighbors, in fact a bit later by spelling out the goals of Ukrainians, and especially Polish goals of the war we see he indeed speaks the language of the neighbors, who know each other vices and are determined to mutually eliminate them. This war is both, the war of global structural realignment, and the war for national sovereignty of Ukraine. Both goals coexist in equal measure, and the relationship between them changes during the war. It's a bisociative war, the war feeding itself on two different sources: national liberation and global imperialist structural adjustment. The history of that war already has shown some interesting transformations between these two sources of that war, national liberation and inter-imperialist structural adjustment.

.Czy Polsce grozi wojna? Is Poland threatened by the war?

The victory for Poland would be for Russian Army to be destroyed, according to Bartosiak, Ukraina gets back Donbas and Crimea, and the best would be if Rosja would break apart, to loose any basis, territorial, economical or political in order to end the imperial predilections of the Russian elites.

Of course, if that is the meaning of victory for Poland than indeed Poland is threatened by the war. Why? Because that is Polish state of mind, as judging the support among Polish population through the actions of Polish government. If to win means to defeat, especially on the battlefield, then it means war for us. It's the result of binary thinking, either us or them.
Is there another possibility? If there is, it is not reachable through the binary thinking.
Instead, if we rest our thinking on the concept of equilibrium between the participants in the war, then this concept suggests a different solution.
The notion of equilibrium of threats is at the basis to understand this war. If we recall Putin's speeches just before February 22, 2022, we recall that the main justification for Russia was the feeling of threat by the surrounding it forces of NATO. As we know now, the feeling of threat was fully justified in the geopolitical situation at the time. However, to obtain the full picture of the situation at that time, the notion of equilibrium clarifies that similarly to Russia feeling threatened by the forces of NATO standing on her western borders, we, the countries of East Europe feel equally threatened by Russian army standing on our eastern borders. Consequently we have had here the equilibrium of threats and the only way to obtain lasting peace is simultaneous elimination of both of them.
Thus the ultimate solution:

Russian Army – behind Ural mountains AND, NATO- out of Europe, simultaneously

This solution sees all of Europe as the continent of peace, as the first real step towards the vision of Isajasz 2.4: " and they shall beat their swords into plowshares, and their spares into pruning hooks: nation shall not lift up sword against nation, neither they shall learn war anymore"

At 14:40 minute Bartosiak asserts, as many comentators do, that any compromise with Russia would only be „передышка" that is temporary solution because Putin's motivation on the international scene is pure power, the desire to take over.
Let's not forget that Putin's goal was pushing away NATO from Eastern and central Europe. Moving NATO out of Europe together with moving Russian army behind Ural might deliver to Putin exactly his purpose, while at the same time forcing him to deal on the scene of Europe solely through peaceful economic and social means, eliminating at the same time reasons for the war on both sides.

W 14:28 Bartosiak very strongly asserts that, from the point of view of well being of Ukraine, Poland should be the guarantor of any compromise obtained with Russia, even proposing military alliance with Ukraine in the case Russia breaking the peace.
I agree that Poland should be there as the cosigner, not however as providing military support to Ukraine if needed, but as the guarantor of peace between the two, as the one responsible for the peaceful relationship between the two. The special role of Poland in its alliance with Ukraine was discussed in the earlier issue about Arestovich.
This particular role of Poland in the compromise aligns it naturally with the recent role of China vis-à-vis the conflict and this is a very good alignment both for Poland and China. Accordingly to Bartosiak, it's a second chance for both countries to become allies, allies in peace, where Poland becomes the bridge of peace between East and West to finally fulfill its historical destiny.

 

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