China as a peacemaker in Ukraine.
The possibility of China becoming a successful peacemaker in the Ukrainian war gets everyone involved cautiously hopeful.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZbWOo_BJIJU&t=24s
Bonikowska, the Chief of the Center for International Relations Think Tank perceives this moment as the Entry of China into the Game (Chiny wkraczaja do gry.)At:4:40 minute Bonikowska points out that China as a mediator may have cards in its hands that the West doesn't have and that might be the source of its possible success. At the same time, she sees the necessity for Ukrainian army to achieve a significant victory on the battle field, which will force Russians into negotiations. What is important here as compared with the approach of Strategy and Future is that both Bonikowska and Bartosiak count and want a major military victory by Ukrainians, however whereas Bartosiak wants this victory to dismantle the Russian state, Bonikowska wants to force Russians into negotiations. Significant difference of expectations. My own thinking is closer to Bonikowska's. In fact I imagined Ukrainian Army gets to seriously threaten Crimea, then excluding the nuclear threat, Russia will have to sit to negotiations. It is at that moment when the presence of China might be critical, on one hand to come up with the acceptable compromise formula and at the same time convince Putin to eliminate the nuclear threat. Professor Góralczyk perceives at (16:00) the present China entry in similar terms to Bonikowska, as the new player on the block.
Nowy porzadek swiata: Goralczyk and Budzisz
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMUik7gCj0M&t=2341s
He is discussing a bit the cards China may have in its hand, both in relation to Russia as well as to the West. Again a subtle difference between his and Budzisz's argument at (20-24) . Budzisz is skeptical as to the peaceful role of China because, in his opinion it gained its fundamental strategic goals by reducing Russia to it junior partner. In my opinion, that reduction of motivation to pure material and rational interest, so characteristic to Strategy and Future thinking is its main flaw. It leads to misjudgments in different situations by foreclosing the possibilities which are open with a somewhat different mindset. Here, Góralczyk is sufficiently open to see the possibility of peace ushered by China, seemingly an anathema to Strategy and Future.
The recent video below shows the pathway to the blind alley of strategic Polish thinking based upon the active presence of US here on European continent. Unfortunately it becomes clear American interests are moving to the Pacific.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MeDebJ2VzgU&t=2575s
Jak uchronić Polskę? Wojna na Ukrainie to dopiero początek? - Jacek Bartosiak i Piotr Zychowicz
and the realization of this fact uncovers the doubts leading to a fundamental yet implicit question by Zychowicz (at 1hr 8 min): look, if US will withdraw to Pacific, then we, Poland are again alone, between Germany and Russia. What do we do then? - is the implicit question. It's here where the dramatic title of Budzisz's recent book, Strategic Loneliness of Poland has the best application.